The Science of Prediction:

A Possible January, 1998 "Hale-Bopp Event"

By Richard C. Hoagland
(C) 1997 The Enterprise Mission

URGENT: This text was posted ASAP to get the information out, the [graphics] will follow as soon as Richard can prepare and upload them.

Section I -- Introduction

The end of one year and the beginning of another usually brings with it a spate of future "forecasts." These can range from the wildly optimistic ("The 49ers will win the Super Bowl this year!") to the grimly pragmatic ("Get out of the Market NOW; the long-awaited 'big correction' is almost here ...").

The method of arriving at prognostications can vary just as wildly: from claimed "psychic abilities" to detailed numerical analyses (in the case of the Market, perhaps coupled with information regarding a coming "dramatic global event" ... which could predictably panic key investors ...).

However it is done, accurate prediction is always subject to the uncertainties of "chance" (or, in the language of mathematicians these days, appropriate application of "chaos theory"); even small, apparently insignificant changes in initial conditions can lead to wildly varying outcomes. In terms of successfully forecasting natural events, for instance: a prediction regarding an earthquake might get the "date, time and location" correct ... but because of "chaos theory" miss on the exact magnitude of the "event" itself.

When attempting to predict future human activities, the problem is compounded even further.

The very act of publicly making a "prediction" about a possible future action of an individual (or group of individuals) may cause those planning that event to change their minds ... making the initial prediction appear completely wrong. [In fact, the act of publicizing the "prediction" was part of altering the "initial conditions" around the event itself (in this case, the clandestine intentions of the planners), thus altering the specifics of the outcome ...]

Finally, there is the problem of prediction based on "special evidence" -- forces and factors unknown (as yet) to either the general scientific community ... the prevailing political environment ... or to the general public. Such forecasts, dependent for their believability before the fact on "inside sources and/or information" -- and the creation of an "internally consistent," predictive model from that information -- are perhaps the most difficult to communicate of all.

Section II -- "The Problem"

All of these central "problems of prediction" now confronts Enterprise itself.

Based on over 15 years of multi-disciplinary investigation and analysis of potential "hidden agendas" within NASA, if not a striking "pattern" behind many of NASA's most visible activities, we have come into possession of some extraordinary information relating to a possible "event" which could occur in early January, 1998. After literally months of extensive analysis, and much internal discussion, we have reached the following tentative conclusions:

Although the precise scope of this impending event is still unclear -- its location, date and time are, by contrast, now reasonably certain:

New York City. January 3, 1998. 3:50 PM EST.

The leading scenario for what may happen strongly points to an "astronomical event": the explosive encounter of Earth, at 3:50 PM EST, with one or more small fragments of rock traveling in perpendicular orbits (to the Earth's) around the Sun [graphic].

How can the time and impact location of such objects (which, at the time of this writing, have not been "officially" announced) be scientifically predicted?


On January 3, the Earth will pass once again within an astronomical "stone's throw" of the perpendicular orbit of perhaps the most famous celestial object in recent history, Comet Hale-Bopp. It is errant fragments of that spectacular object, trailing far behind in its wake, which we project from our analysis now have "a non-zero probability" of hitting Earth -- possibly in the vicinity of New York -- the afternoon (local time) of Saturday, January 3.

Despite the fact that Hale-Bopp itself is "long gone" -- having passed closest to the Earth in March, 1997 -- its former trajectory around the solar system still can easily be plotted [graphic]. And moving in this comet's original orbit, long after Earth passed closest to that orbit a year ago, are potentially thousands of additional small fragments of the comet; it is a few of these -- traveling some 9 million miles parallel to Hale-Bopp's original trajectory -- which could, as we pass closest to that orbit once again, directly impact our planet January 3.

Unfortunately, as of this writing, no official declarations regarding this very serious scientific possibility have been forthcoming from any government authorities (including NASA).

There has been, however, a most "curious" unofficial warning of such a startling possibility -- broadcast several months ago via none other than the Turner Broadcasting System (TBS), parent corporation to CNN itself. The very dramatic "warning" was part of a sudden, incessant drumbeat this past Spring of recurring network "specials" and "television documentaries" graphically illustrating the major dangers of "asteroid impact" here on Earth. The latest in these efforts, an NBC National Geographic Special starring former USGS geologist and "impact pioneer," the now-deceased Gene Shoemaker, entitled, "Asteroids: Deadly Impact," aired New Years Eve, December 31, 1997 -- just four days prior to January 3 ...

Yet, despite a recent, truly remarkable confirmation of the central conclusion of all these multiple "impact" television Specials -- an apparently spectacular, major meteorite impact occurring somewhere in southern Greenland, on December 9 -- no American news follow-up has been forthcoming with details on this event ... even after months of unprecedented, prior television "hype" around this very subject!

One post-impact report, broadcast over Danish television [link to Niels Bohr Institute Geophysical site,] December 20, described "a one kilometer-wide crater in the ice ..!" seen from a commercial airliner flying approximately 27,000 feet over the calculated impact site; if such a crater is visible, it will confirm the equivalent of 30 megatons of explosive force released by the "Greenland meteorite" impact!

Inexplicably, however, after literally millions of dollars worth of repeated, highly graphic "asteroid television specials" ... and almost a full month after December 9 ... apparently not one American network producer or television correspondent has personally flown to Greenland -- either to interview the scores of eyewitnesses to an event which "turned night to day" and was reportedly "brighter than a nuclear explosion" ... or, to do even one "stand-up piece" on the spectacular rim of the reported crater itself. And apparently, no major network or print news organization has even inquired of the U.S. Defense Department's extensive array of existing reconnaissance assets well-deployed in Greenland (satellites, radar, seismic arrays, etc.) to determine where this major impact might have occurred ...


It is for this reason, at this late hour, that Enterprise has decided to "go public" with what this investigation has independently uncovered on this overall important subject. It will be up to individuals -- particularly, those living in the Northeastern United States -- to decide what they should do (if anything) with what we have discovered.

The widely broadcast "warning" referred to earlier -- of a possible coming impact event somewhere in the Northeast, on January 3, 1998 -- was framed many months ago as a "dramatization," an opening "news bulletin" to one of the dozen or so asteroid documentaries that suddenly aired, almost simultaneously, on all television networks and major cable outlets last Spring. This particular effort, a TBS documentary called "Fire from the Sky" [graphic] was initially broadcast March 26, 1997; over succeeding months, it has been rebroadcast several additional times on CNN itself -- but, curiously, now minus the critical, original dramatization re "possible impacts from fragments of Hale-Bopp ..."

The opening scene of the "dramatization" is the newsroom of a hypothetical television station ... "WNN" ... where two news anchors announce a breaking story: a NATO report of a possible "nuclear airburst over Glasgow, Scotland ..." [graphic]

Initial explanations range from a "UK nuclear test gone terribly wrong" to a bonafide "nuclear terrorist attack." Developments escalate rapidly; the first explosion is soon joined by a second, 300 miles away, over Dublin, Ireland; WNN then switches live to "a Washington Pentagon briefing" that has hastily been called [graphic], where a uniformed Air Force colonel gravely announces to assembled press that the explosions are, in fact, only "an isolated incident ... caused by the upper atmospheric fragmentation of two errant asteroids ... pulled into Earth's gravity by accident ..."

This "official" explanation is immediately contradicted by an independent astronomical expert, called to comment on the Pentagon report by WNN: a "Dr. Arthur Cohen" ... Director of the international agency "Space Guard" [graphic].

"Cohen" emphatically warns that the explosions are not "isolated events," as the Pentagon has claimed, but may be only the first of "many, many more, even larger events in the next few hours ..." He continues: "Those were NOT asteroids; the events were caused by Comet Hale-Bopp. It's one of the largest comets ever discovered, and we are passing through its tail ... The explosions are [caused by] debris from the comet's tail ... The explosions can be much bigger than the atomic weapons used in World War II. Really, Dublin and Glasgow were lucky ... a bigger piece could hit the ground and cause devastation we can hardly imagine ..."

As Cohen paints this dramatic verbal picture, "WNN" switches satellite feeds to a view direct from the space shuttle Columbia, in orbit over the Atlantic [graphic]. The picture is showing a dramatic series of atmospheric detonations "walking" across the Atlantic ... aimed directly towards New York [graphic]. Cohen gasps, "My God, those are tremendous thermal events. Each one of those represents a massive explosion--"

Suddenly -- the line goes to static ... and then to total silence. One anchor nervously attempts to cover this with, "Ah ... apparently, ah ... we've lost Dr. Cohen."

Hastily, "WNN" (when ..?) switches once again, this time to their correspondent in the field, "Shannon Bell." Bell is doing a standard television "stand-up," with the nighttime New York City skyline brilliantly familiar in the background [graphic]. Also behind her, high over the Atlantic, a random series of increasingly bright flashes silhouettes that skyline, as Bell -- increasingly nervous with the flashes -- attempts to continue with her stand-up commentary on the scene ...

Abruptly, without warning, the biggest flash of all overwhelms the distant skyline [graphic], followed by a roiling shockwave which in seconds can be seen racing directly towards the camera; a terrified Shannon Bell only has time to yell "Oh my God" [graphic], before the hurtling destruction blanks the horrifying picture from the screen ... [graphic]

This highly graphic "dramatization" is the first -- and, significantly, the last -- specific mention of Earth's impending, absolutely factual, January 3rd reencounter with Hale-Bopp in this entire documentary (or, in any of the other "asteroid documentaries" as well ...); however, a quick check of Alan Hale's own book [graphic] (one of the comet's co-discoverers) confirmed that, indeed, on January 3, 1998, Earth will again pass roughly 9 million miles from Hale-Bopp's original trajectory ... astronomically, a "near-miss" -- and well within the range of "errant debris" traveling in parallel orbits of the Sun. In his book, Hale himself remarks that the evening of the 3rd could see "increased meteor activity ..." as Earth indeed crosses possible remnants of Hale-Bopp's tail ...

Section III -- Analysis

So far, this is all straightforward "science."

We have a known celestial object, with a precise celestial trajectory, which Earth will once again encounter on January 3. Reasonable extrapolation indicates (as the TBS documentary dramatically advised) that this second rendezvous may portend "a significant reason for concern" -- as Hale-Bopp was, by far, one of the largest, most extraordinary comets ever probed by modern science, containing a wide variety of phenomenon not presently well-understood ... not the least being--

The non-zero potential for some "pieces" to be traveling in independent orbits ... some several million miles parallel to Hale-Bopp's original trajectory, when we encounter it again on January 3.

All that notwithstanding, our latest information has now raised this previously "circumstantial case for impact" much higher ... new evidence that NASA itself (and thus, the government) concluded months ago that the potential for one or more impacts "from pieces of Hale-Bopp, on January 3rd ..." is very high--

And has chosen to do nothing (apart from one "veiled warning" over TBS, on March 26) to alert the general public of its serious concerns!

Our direct, former governmental sources for this new information are (as might be assumed) highly confidential -- and are, therefore, most difficult to verify; however, some of this new data has been partially corroborated by our on-going, independent computer calculations of the Hale-Bopp trajectory itself -- which, as we noted on Art Bell's "Coast-to-Coast" last Spring, fits inexplicably into a 30-year ancient celestial pattern [link to "Kennedy Grand Plan"] established by NASA for many of its own lunar and planetary missions.

This analysis, of course, brings with it profound "political" implications ... and raises even more profound questions as to the ultimate nature of "Hale-Bopp" itself -- immediately falling into the category of "special evidence" that apriori generally will not be believed (as outlined in Section I, above).

But the new data does independently provide potential corroboration of some otherwise completely baffling "NASA reversals" (reverse speech recordings) broadcast over "Coast-to-Coast" earlier this year by David John Oates. The interview Oates analyzed was conducted by Art Bell last Spring with two official NASA representatives -- Don Savage and Ray Villard [link to Oates' reversals] -- on the specific subject of "Hale-Bopp."

During that NASA interview, in discussing the mundane "peer review committees" and "formal procedures" required even to get observing time on Hubble to look at the Comet, in reverse, the NASA representatives clearly can be heard saying:

"What's locked up with their starship ..? This needs to be known ..."

Moments later, in the context of using Hubble's superb resolution to gain more data on Hale-Bopp, Savage and Villard add more information to their preceding sub-conscious revelations, saying in reverse--

"They've known the shield was up ..."

Followed immediately by--

"It [Hubble?] helps to see hidden ..."

Amid all the highly controversial events surrounding Hale-Bopp's initial March apparition (closest approach to Earth), none caused so much furor as the contention, by some, that riding along with the comet was some kind of companion, or--

A "starship."

The "Heaven's gate" tragedy -- with its intimately discredited "UFO associations" -- was ultimately the overriding factor in dismissing all such allegations out of hand. This was in addition to the simple fact that these initial observational claims of "unnatural objects ... moving in orbit with the comet," were eventually found to be based on a) merely mistaken amateur observations of background stars, seen briefly in optical proximity to Hale-Bopp, and b) publication of deliberate photographic hoaxes.

Significantly, no ultra-high-resolution images of Hale-Bopp when it was closest (in March), were ever "officially" secured by Hubble [link to Van Flandern discussion]; the closest NASA ST (Space Telescope) images were supposedly obtained over 6 months before -- when the comet was still ~ .5 billion miles from Earth. Thus, the potential for Hubble being used "in secret" -- and seeing something "totally anomalous," thereby being the cause of Savage and Villard's otherwise completely inexplicable sub-conscious utterances -- cannot be totally discounted.

Our own Hale-Bopp analysis [link to Van Flandern discussion], in stark contrast, has been based in part on an analysis of the basic orbital parameters of Hale-Bopp itself -- and the discovery of a set of striking "pattern matches" with previous NASA "hidden capabilities," and celestial mechanics--

All of which seem intended to highlight, over and over again, the ritual observance of the ancient Egyptian constellation of Osiris ("Orion").

The most striking example of this Hale-Bopp "orbital anomaly" can be seen in the simple view of the cometary orbit, projected against deep space, as seen from Earth -- at the moment of the January 3 closest approach of Earth to Hale-Bopp's own ~ 90-degree tilted orbit:

As can be seen [graphic], at the moment of closest orbit approach (00:00 GMT) January 3rd, the Hale-Bopp trajectory is projected directly against Orion ("Osiris") ... and within a few arc minutes of the intimately Orion-associated brightest star in the sky, Sirius ("Isis"). This is the identical star previously confirmed (by Enterprise computerized analysis) as being ritually (but clandestinely) commemorated by NASA, on the historic Apollo 11 landing [link to "Kennedy Grand Plan"] at Tranquility Base ... some 28 years before [graphic].

The direct probability of this can easily be calculated -- the Sirius/Hale-Bopp orbit separation in arc minutes (47), divided into the total number of arc minutes (21600) in circle projected against the complete celestial sphere.

The answer (459) is the odds against this being solely due to "chance."

But even stranger discoveries lay ahead.

Given this totally unexpected "Orion connection" -- between a "comet" named "Hale-Bopp" and a NASA project called "Apollo" [graphic] -- we decided to look further; we quickly ran a computer projection of the sky above Apollo 11's Tranquility Base Landing Site ... but 28 year later ... for January 3, 1998--

Precisely the same time as Apollo 11's 1969 "Sirius commemoration" -- 33 minutes after Armstrong and Aldrin's original landing, 8:50 PM GMT.

And once again discovered "Sirius" [graphic]--

This time, a mere 4.5 arc minutes below the Southwestern Tranquility horizon -- a crucially symbolic marker in the ancient "Osiris/Isis" tradition ...

The probability that this was merely due to "chance" is 21600 arc minutes (the full celestial circle) divided by the "error" of Sirius being precisely on the edge of the horizon (4.5 arc minutes) -- or, 4800 to 1 against this being "accidental."

The total odds, at this point, against the entire Hale-Bopp/Apollo "Sirius connection" being "mere coincidence" were these two improbabilities multiplied together (459 x 4800) -- or, over 2 million to 1!

Taking our next cue from the "satellite plot" depicted in the TBS "dramatization," we now asked the computer to project the sky above New York -- at precisely the same time ... 8:50 PM GMT, January 3, 1998 (3:50 PM local time) ... and once again discovered--


This time, 33 degrees below the eastern New York horizon [graphic].

And why was "33" significant? Because (among other symbolic reasons, too complicated to detail here) the original Apollo 11 "Sirius ceremony" was conducted precisely 33 minutes after landing [link to "Kennedy Grand Plan"] ...

Because the actual computer recreation of the New York horizon declination is "-33 degrees: 01 minutes: 36 seconds," the error is about 1.5 arc minutes, producing a probability (21600/1.5) of "14,400 to 1 against chance."

The odds that this combined "Sirius connection" is due to mere "coincidence" is (14,400 X 459 X 4800), or ...

31,726,080,000 to 1 against.

Thirty one billion to one ...

Anyone want to go to Vegas?

Just for kicks, we decided to throw in the "Greenland Event" (which American television somehow considers so "unnewsworthy"...).

The published "impact site" (according to the Niels Bohr Institute Website [previous link]) is "63 degrees:10 minutes N.; 46 degrees:30 minutes W. " The time (from the Greenland surveillance video that recorded the actual meteor entry over "Nuk") was "5:11 AM local time ..."

In milliseconds, with this input, the computer recreated the Greenland sky above the impact site ... and there, glittering just ~10 arc minutes (1/3 the width of a full Moon) above the Southwest horizon was once again--


The odds of this occurring strictly by chance are, of course, (21600/10), or -- 2160 to 1.

The overall probability that all these events are connected merely "by accident" is thus (14,400 X 459 X 4800 X 2160), or--

6.85 X 10 to the 13th power ... 68 trillion to 1!!

There is one final, almost "impossible" result which must now be presented.

As we were calculating the odds of the visibility of Hale-Bopp's projected orbit against the background stars for January 3 (see above), we noticed that the angle between the comet's 90-degree orbit and Sirius was slowly increasing on the 3rd; this led to the instant realization that the actual moment when the orbit could be seen from Earth actually crossing Sirius -- a true "Sirian conjunction" -- was sometime before the 3rd ...

Milliseconds later, and we knew:

The actual moment when Sirius and Hale-Bopp's orbit merged, as seen from Earth, was 7:50 PM GMT, January 2nd. Adding the one hour between January 2 and July 20 (Apollo 11's landing date, 28 years before), because of Daylight Savings Time, and we suddenly realized this astonishing conjunction was precisely 24 hours before the Tranquility/New York alignments previously calculated ...

Furthermore, at that precise instant, the projected southward track of Hale-Bopp's orbit against the celestial sphere -- and directly across Sirius -- depicted the exact vector of the proper motion of Sirius itself [graphic]! (We'll leave it to the reader to calculate the probabilities of this one ...)

Another "geometric message" ... like "Cydonia!?"

But ... from whom?

The direct inference from this extraordinary series of "coincidences" -- that Hale-Bopp was somehow not a "natural object," that it was, in fact, a "designer comet" ... sent on an incredibly precise trajectory through the inner solar system ... by "someone"--

As a deliberate symbolic "show"--

Seems at first utterly outrageous ...

Until you examine the other evidence also deliberately "leaked" by NASA personnel over the preceding years ...

The most essential of this evidence (in addition to the "ancient ruins" Enterprise has actively investigated in a variety of NASA data, for almost 20 years) are the live "downlinks" of at least two extraordinary television "shuttle sequences" in the past 5 years -- STS-48 (September, 1991) [graphic] and STS-80 (December, 1996). The latter even ends with an eerie image of some kind of "anomalous object" hanging against the constellation of Orion -- just above the Earth's horizon seen from the Columbia in orbit [graphic] ...

These two officially-televised NASA shuttle transmissions have shown live to millions what can only be termed, after years of rigorous Enterprise analysis, as--

"'Unbelievable,' non-Newtonian spacecraft ... doing 'unbelievable things' in Earth orbit ... as the Shuttle crews unbelievingly look on ..."

Regardless of who possesses this extraordinary technological capability ("us" or "aliens"), the power of this "electro-gravidic engineering" to steer entire celestial objects ("comets?") into precision orbits ... to create, at will, spectacular celestial displays seen across an entire solar system ... in fulfillment of some arcane symbolic reasoning ... staggers the imagination.

Such power can, of course, also alter the trajectories of objects which might just threaten Earth from such a "stunt" ... such as "the errant debris from the former tail of Comet Hale-Bopp." What was that again that Neil Armstrong said at the White House, on the 25th Anniversary of Apollo 11 -- July 20, 1994 ... even as another "comet extravaganza" was putting on its show [graphic] ..?

"This week, America's been recalling and reliving the memories of those times in which so many of us here ... were immersed. Our old astro-geology mentor, Gene Shoemaker, even called in one of his comets ... to mark the occasion with spectacular Jovian fireworks ..."

So, gentlemen ... now we know--

"Something" is about to happen ... in New York.

Call it off!